Barents Synthesis - BCCR

The synthesis was resubmitted may 2013, after recieving largely constructive
suggestions on the version submitted September 2012.
Write an e-mail to Lars H. Smedsrud if you would like to have a copy.

Tuesday 28. March, GFI, all day meeting, most chapters ready


Tuesday 21. February, NERSC, air-sea-ice fluxes

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Wednesday 2. November, Main meeting  
09:30 - 10:00 Section 1 - Hypothesis and responses (Lars H)
10:00 - 10:30 Section 2 and 3 : Review & Ocean Transport
Coffe Break, 30 min
11:00 - 11:30 Section 4 - Heat transfer Ocean => air (Igor)
11:30 - 12:00 Section 5 - Atmospheric Circulation (Vladimir)
Lunch, 1 hour, exotic surprise
13:00 - 13:30 Section 6 - Sinking of Carbon Rich water (Abdir)
13:30 - 14:00 Section 7 - The last 1000 years (Bjørg)
14:00 - 14:30 Section 8 - The future (year 2050) (Anne Britt)
Coffe Break
15:00 - 15:00 Overall discussion
15:30 - 16:00 Journal discussion - letter to editor in Reviews of Geophysics ??

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Tuesday 1. November 2011, Atmospheric “sub” meeting
13:00 - 13:15 Lars H : Overview  
13:15 - 14:00 Svetlana : Recent atmospheric circulations variability
14:00 - 14:30 Odd Helge : BCM results, early warming and circulation
Coffe Break
15:00 - 15:30 Noel & Jennifer : NAO and Barents inflow
15:30 - 16:00 Discussion


August meeting, Tuesday 30. 09:00-12:00  -  Analysis underway
GFI, Eastwing, BCCR meeting room, Third floor.

09:00 - 09:15 Lars H. Smedsrud : welcome
09:15 - 09:30 Bjørg Risebrobakken: Existing Paleo data
09:30 - 10:00 Svetlana Sorokina : Atmospheric variability and Barents sea-ice change
Coffe Break
10:00 - 10:15 Randi Ingvaldsen : The present review plan
10:45 - 11:00 Vidar Lien : Data analysis plan for ocean section
11:00 - 11:20 Igor Esau : A framework of the Barents sea - atmosphere interaction

Discussion : Do we have the data we need ???
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May meeting, Monday May 30. 13:00-16:00
GFI, Eastwing, BCCR meeting room, Third floor.

13:00 - 13:05 Lars H. Smedsrud : Welcome
13:05 - 13:20 Randi Ingvaldsen : Hypothesis
13:20 - 13:30 Lars H. Smedsrud : Feedbacks a’la Bengtson & Ikeda ??
13:30 - 13:45 Bjørg Risebrobakken: The Paleo stuff
13:45 - 14:00 Anne Britt Sandø: The Future
Coffe Break
14:15 - 14:30 Abdir Omar : The CO2 uptake and take-down
14:30 - 14:45 Marius : Sea ice area reflects what ?
14:45 - 15:00 Svetlana Sorokina : Surface heat loss - the limiting factor ?
15:00 - 16:00 Discussion : What analyses should we do ???

Kickstart - Workshop Wednesday 23. February 2011, 10:00. Helland Hansen meeting room, GFI.

10:00 -10:10 Lars H. Smedsrud : Welcome and overview
10:10 -10:30  Even Nilsen : Ventilatation synthesis - what is going on along the Atlantic inflow track.
10:30 -10:50  Øystein Skagseth : Barents Sea Opening, time-series back to the warm 30's.
10:50 - 11:10  Randi Ingvaldsen : Variation in outflow in the Barents Sea eXit
Coffe Break
11:20-11:40
Tor Eldevik : Barents Sea ice cover reflects Atlantic inflow.
11:40-12:00
Igor Esau : Atmospheric heat in the Barents Sea and radiosonde data.
12:00-12:20
Odd Helge Otterå: The long BCM run, and why the north had warm 30's and cool 70's. 
Lunch

13:30-13:50
Are Olsen : Has the Barents Sea a role in the global carbon cycle?
13:50-14:10  Bjørn Ådlandsvik : Downscaling in the Barents Region

Notes from the meeting:

People that came: Bjørg, Odd Helge, Tor G, Randi, Bjørn, Ilker, Ken, Even, Are, Tor E. Vidar, Emil, Camille, Mirjam, Øystein, Igor.

Lars H: Short introduction and scope for the day. The suggestion to write the paper in Google Documents was well recieved, and we decided to give it a try. People that would like to join as co-authors tell Lars H. and then he will give them writing permission.

Even: NISE data, and processes relevant for the Greenland-Scotland overflow water. He will lead a ventilation synthesis where the Barents Sea dense water formation plays a role.


Øystein: Coastal current and the BSO. Also heat fluxes and baroclininc flow is important.

Randi: Variation on BSX. Dense water changes. Warm Deep water. Shut down of CDW production in the 1950’s and the 2000’s.

Tor E: Dimensional analysis. HAMSOM run and 1Dice. Correlation between Volume and Temperature and sea ice cover.

Igor: Barents atmosphere only cares about ice/not ice. Ocean temperature changes are too small to matter.

Odd Helge: Early warming as Johannesen suggested was natural variability also needs a bit of anthropogenic forcing to get the timing right. Surface temperature since the 1930’s north of 60 deg N are generally reproduced well.

Are: Barents contributes significantly to the surface ocean => deep ocean carbon flux. Little role in inventory (storage), and uptake.

Bjørn. Downscaling with ROMS from GISS and CCM3. GISS is to cold (too little Atlantic Water) CCM3 is much better. Small warming for GISS in 2050, much larger warming for CCM3. About 2.5 deg C for a large area. The polar front (GISS 2050) has moved northwards, much like what has happened recently.

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Discussion:

We should keep track of who writes what in Google Docs.

Future e-mails only to those that came to the meeting, and those that have asked to be in a “Barents Group”.

We have a lot of useful data, and model results. But we still needs a good story to spin the paper around.

Reanalysis: We need them, radiosonde data starts too high up. Sattelite data and reanalysis are the main source of data.

We need a better hypothesis for the synthesis. Randi had suggestions. The three last sections (Carbon, Past and Future) needs a good link to the rest.


From the outline in the proposal:

The role of the Barents Sea in the climate system      - A synthesis paper based within the Bjerknes Centre to be submitted in 2012

There will be an open first meeting with a general invitation to all researchers at the Bjerknes Centre. Scientists that will be specially invited to join the synthesis are,  (no particular order): Randi Ingvaldsen, Øystein Skagseth, Anne B. Sandø, Tor Eldevik, Even Nilsen, Asgeir Sorteberg, Odd Helge Otterå, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Camille Li, Yvan Orsolini, Igor Esau, Svetlana Sorokina, Lars H. Smedsrud, Vidar Lien, Tor Gammelsrød, Ilker Fer, Richard Bellerby, Corinna Schrum.

Thus having the score: HI (4), GFI (5), NERSC (3) and UNI (5)

Scope: Produce an updated synthesis of the coupled Barents Sea ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system: processes and their balances, and role in the climate system for the present state (e.g. last 15 years). Compare these findings with other periods where historic instrumental data exist; e.g. the 1930's warm period, the 1960-70's cold period etc. Identify similar relevant periods  from a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to identify large scale feedback mechanism, and  tele-connections related to the Barents Sea climate variability.

Data sources: Observations gathered from published work: Temperature, wind, pressure, precipitation and humidity from atmospheric met stations. inlcude Radiosondes as well.  Hydrography from cruises (ocean temperature and salinity) and moored instruments.   

- Atmospheric station data extend back to early 1900th century (Bjørnøya Ta, SLP) 1911(1918), Måsøy: 1867
- Include Russian hydrographic section data starting 1929 (early warming, NorthCape- Bear Island section)
- Century run with fully coupled BCM, analysing cold and warm periods.
 

Limitations: Should include observations in order to capture the 20 century early warming period.
Not further back in time than 1930 (leave RG1 and paleo out here). Also leave out re-analysis products (if possible) and base this study truly on observations.

Open questions:
Include millennium scale ocean-atmosphere simulations? Provide the possibility to investigate feedbacks rooted in the Barents Sea,
and possible how they change during different (e.g. warm and cold) periods ?
Include future scenarios ocean-atmosphere simulations (Take in  RG5 as suggested by the invited list of authors) ?
Include chemistry and CO2 uptake (Take in RG4 as suggested). No central role, but include it because we can and have the people ?

Within the BCCR the synthesis will thus mainly take in RG3 and RG2, but also RG1. There are possible extensions to RG4 and RG5. One limitation is available meteorologists, we can hopefully draw on Asgeir Sorteberg and the new Thomas Spengler at the GFI. Also Camille Li (RG1) could provide valuable input on the past climate atmospheric circulation. 

PhD's with related activities: Ole Segtnan, Marius Årthun, Sigrid Johansen, Svetlana Sorokina

The mandate:

a.      The responsible PI calls for a meeting of all contributors. These meetings are openly announced wthin the Bjerknes Centre so that all who believe they can contribute have an opportunity to present their ideas in the opening meeting.
b.      In preparation for the opening meeting the PI secures preparation of a brief (1.page approx.) synopis of the objectives, work and deliverables of the synthesis. The synopis forms the basis of the discussion and a final plan with personnell, deliverables and milestones shall be sent to the RG leader , Birgit, Tore and Eystein.
c.      It is expected that senior participants devote enough time and priority to the synthesis work in order to secure the results.
d.      Opening meeting shall be held before March 1

The cash:

 

2011

MONTHS (Inst.)

2012

MONTHS (Inst.)

TOTAL MONTHS

PI

The role of the Barents Sea in the climate system

3 (UNI)

3 (HI)

4 (NERSC)

3 (UNI)

3 (HI)

2 (NERSC)

18


L.H. Smedsrud (UNI)